By Ferenc L. Toth (auth.), Dr. Ferenc L. Toth (eds.)
The Potsdam Institute for weather effect examine (PIK) used to be based in 1992 as a "Blue checklist" study institute, with the Federal Ministry for schooling, technology, study and know-how and the Ministry for technology, learn and tradition of the federal kingdom of Brandenburg each one provid ing part ofthe investment. PIK at the moment has a employees of a hundred (1997), together with approximately seventy five scientists and visitor scientists, in addition to a few scholars and transitority assistants. extra growth is happening on the institute website within the "Albert Einstein" technology Park in Potsdam. The interdisciplinary nature of weather impression study, specifically the interface among the traditional clinical and socioeconomic dimensions of environmental learn, is mirrored at PIK within the shut cooperation with companion institutes at nationwide and overseas point. The versatile body paintings created for the institute permits new difficulties and concerns to be taken up as they come up. As a middle of clinical innovation, PIK additionally coordinates overseas actions within the fields of weather effect learn and Earth method research. The institute homes undertaking workplaces for the IGBP overseas study courses, for instance. Simulations of worldwide switch are played on PIK's supercomputer utilizing versions and knowledge drawn from numerous disciplines. The parallel compu ter (an IBM-SP2) boasts 20 gigaflops of computing energy, making it some of the most strong examine desktops in Germany. The Workshop on Cost-Benefit Analyses of weather switch was once together prepared through PIK and the Wuppertal Institute for strength, weather, and surroundings (WI).
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8). A. ,' ----------''',,' ,,' " , -~~::::::::: .. ,::,"",;:: , ~- Figure 7. Trend of atmospheric surface pressure (hPa); winter (1961-1990). in January/February 1990. This is of greatest concern to the insurance industry since an increased frequency of similar conditions could virtually ruin some sectors of the affected markets. Many other changes have affected the earth, such as the expansion of deserts and the increase in droughts on the edge of these areas, remarkable changes in flora and fauna - from increased wintering of former migratory birds in our latitudes, to dying forests - and not least the increase in tropical diseases outside the areas where they are normally found.
4. Need for future research activities The economics of the global warming problem is much more complicated than is recognized in the computable energy-economic models available today. New approaches mention the greenhouse gas problem as a capacity problem for the atmosphere, but the exhaustibility of the resource stock together with strategic fossil fuel supplier is still neglected. The economic analysis of global warming policy has not taken adequate notice of the dynamics of the greenhouse gases problem, and hence the dynamics of policy instruments.
Put in a different context, the comparison between standards and permits is easy to dismiss. Compared with standards that fix emissions at every source, permits increase efficiency without any increase in expected damage; and so permits must, on economic grounds at least, always be preferred. A corollary is that any close economically-based comparison of taxes and standards suggests that marketable permits, working as a structural compromise between two extremes, should probably be preferred to either extreme.